My Speech from Romance Writers of America-San Diego Conference
As promised, here's the text of my recent speech at the San Diego Romance Writers of America conference held in Escondido this past weekend:
THE ROMANCE MARKET IN THE U.S.
1. SOME PERSPECTIVE (2006 Figures)
According to the Business of Consumer Publishing Report 2007 from Simba Information, the net revenue for books from retail sources in the U.S. accounted for $6.31 billion in 2006. (This was a slight decline over 2005.)
Romance sales accounted for $1.37 billion or 21% of the overall sales.
Religious/inspirational sales accounted for $1.68 billion (which includes bibles; the number one selling book ever.)
* Science fiction/fantasy $495 million
* Classic literary fiction $448 million
* Mystery $422 million
* Graphic novels $128 million
The top five publishers of romance fiction (by sales)?
* Harlequin ($418 million)
* Random House ($81 million)
* Penguin Group ($71 million)
* HarperCollins ($64.8 million)
* Kensington ($37 million)
According to the report, the number of books PUBLISHED (rather than sold) are as follows:
* 40% category/series romance
* 17% historical
* 16% contemporary
* 9% paranormal
* 7% romantic suspense
* 6% inspirational
* 5% other (chick lit, young adult, erotic romance, women’s fict.)
WHO ARE THESE READERS?
According to an Associated Press–Ipsos poll, among those who said they read books in the past year:
* One in five read romance novels
* People from the South read slightly more; mostly religious books and romance novels
* More women than men read every major category
* Women read nine books per year, while men read five
According to RWA data: the romance reader has a "high frequency of purchases" with more than half of romance readers (54%) reading between one and five books in the past year; 17% reading between six and 10 books; and 14% reading between 11 and 20 books.
2. ROMANCE IS AS HEALTHY AS AN ALPHA MALE HERO (2007/08 Figures)
Romance novels constitute 40% of all popular fiction purchased in the U.S., with more than $1 billion in annual sales. Romance continues to represent more than 50% of the mass market paperbacks sold in the U.S. (with 1/3 of those sold at mass merchandisers like Target and Wal-Mart.)
Booksellers group, Shelf-Awareness, reported these statistics:
Net U.S. book sales for the month of February 2008 rose 4.8% to $491.2 million and for the year have risen 6.2% to $1.2 billion, as reported by 79 member publishers to the Association of American Publishers.
In an interesting contrast that may point to consumer's sensitivity to price in the current economy, in February, adult paperback was one of the strongest categories while adult hardcover was the weakest. Adult paperback climbed 30.8% to $128.8 million. Children's/YA hardcover rose 8.1% to $40.7 million. Children's/YA paperback rose 7.2% to $37.2 million.
Adult mass market rose 0.4% to $59.5 mill.
University press paperbacks fell 3.2% to $4.5 million.
University press hardcovers dropped 6.5% to $5.1 million.
Audiobooks fell 5.7% to $10.8 million.
Religious books fell 6.8% to $49.2 million.
Adult hardcovers fell 26.4% to $83.5 million.
According to Publishers Weekly, 5/13/2008:
For March 2008, bookstore sales rose 1.3% to $1.03 billion, according to estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. Sales have increased every month so far in 2008 and finished the first quarter up 5.1%, to $4.46 billion. The 1.3% March increase was the smallest gain in 2008. The sales increase in the bookstore segment was higher than for the entire retail segment, which rose 3.9% in the quarter. March retail sales inched up 0.5%, to $379 billion.
And according to Romance Writers of America: The popularity of romance audiobooks and e-books, publisher involvement in on-line communities and contests, and the expansion of subgenres spell a strong future for romance fiction.
3. ROMANCE SUB-GENRES GO UP AND DOWN IN POPULARITY
Popular Today:
Paranormal
Romantic Suspense
Historical (especially Regency)
Holding Steady:
Erotica
Contracting:
Chick Lit
Inspirational
4. E-Books and POD Romance
E-books were up 6.7% to $2.6 million in 2006 and although I couldn't find figures to support it, I bet they're up even more in 2007.
Romance titles have “done especially well” in the electronic book format. According to the New York Times, “The early best-seller lists were dominated by science fiction novels and other titles favored by men….But lately, the lists are led by romance and women’s fiction”. The International Digital Publishing Forum (IDF) reported sales of trade e-books for 2006 at around $24 million, which is double the amount of sales for 2005. “The adoption of OPS 2.0 along with the ‘.epub’ file format that goes with it…means that publishers can now create one digital book file instead of the 6 to 10 formats previously required", which is HUGE. With the new e-book file format, debut of the Sony Reader and Amazon Kindle, and new software from eBook Technologies, Mobipocket, eReader.com and others, sales should continue to rise.
It will be interesting to see what Amazon's recent announcement about POD books needing to be published by Amazon's subsidiary, BookSurge, in order to have a direct "BUY" button on Amazon.com. What will this do to POD romance titles?
5. FRESH OPINIONS (May 2008)
Some editors speak out on what's hot and what's not today in romance novels.
Cindy Hwang, Berkley: Today, paranormal romance is definitely divided into several subdivisions--there's dark fantasy/horror, where I would put all the vampires, werewolves, witches etc. used in a darker universe and tone. On the opposite end there's funny paranormal, which often can have a chick lit veneer to the voice and stories. There's also futuristic/sci fi romance, and pure fantasy romance. There still the occasional time travel or ghost romance, but the most popular creature now is the vampire. You definitely see darker, edgier, sexier paranormal romances now, but really there are books all along the paranormal spectrum. There are truly books for every taste.
Ginjer Buchanan, an editor at Berkley/Ace who has edited Laurell K. Hamilton and Charlaine Harris among others, discussed what constitutes Urban Fantasy. There's some paranormal romance that can be classified as Urban Fantasy, and Berkley's been working on ways to promote authors and books in both ponds since they know there's a large crossover readership. Urban Fantasy is a true cross-genre subgenre. Basically, Urban Fantasy can be defined as fiction that features preternatural creatures interacting with humans or other beings in a non-hidden manner. The world is contemporary and often a mirror of our own world, with the addition of preternatural creatures. The setting is usually urban, although not always. The tension often comes from the conflict of having the preternatural beings exist somewhat uneasily in a larger society made of non-magical beings. The protagonist is usually female, and there can be some kind of romantic element, but what propels the plot is not the romantic relationship--more likely, the plot is suspense-oriented.
Cindy goes on to say: Never fear, historical and contemporary romances are alive and well! Not everyone loves paranormal, of course, and in this age of diversity, I think it's more important than ever to give readers a choice. So publishers are still committed to buying and publishing historical romance and contemporary romance (romantic suspense, romantic comedy and contemporary romance). The problem comes when we can't find the quality we're looking for, because writers have decided that these subgenres won't sell and thus are no longer writing in these areas. It is true that for the most part, the historical and contemporary romance market isn't as strong right now as paranormal, but I think we (editors, publishers and readers) have been reading romance long enough to know that everything cycles around, and that as long as good books are being published in these subgenres, there will always be markets for them.
Shauna Summers, Bantam/Dell:
I think the general feeling is that publishing as a whole is starting to feel some of the impact of the recession. However, paranormal romance, historicals and romantic suspense all continue to do really well for us. Summers is also looking for 'big, contemporary romance' for Bantam Dell
Stacy Boyd, Harlequin:
Paranormal, especially the dark and/or sexy stuff (Gena Showalter), is doing well. We've also seen strong performances for erotica, inspirational romance, and some traditional/contemporary
romance (Debbie Macomber). Historicals, especially the sexy kind, are on the upswing with readers.
Ellen Edwards, NAL
*paranormals and urban fantasy are still going strong, although with so
many series to choose from, some are doing better than others. We
believe that readers will be looking for new world building, beyond
vampires, and we're excited to be introducing Jessica Andersen's
Nightkeepers series (NIGHTKEEPERS: A Novel of the Final Prophecy 6/08)
based on Mayan mythology.
*traditional Regency-set historicals by veteran writers are still going
strong--Jo Beverley is currently enjoying her longest run yet on the New
York Times list, and many others, with A LADY'S SECRET.
*romantic suspense is still a hot area where writers can build theiraudience; JoAnn Ross is doing very well for us with her High Risk series
(FREEFALL 2/08), as is Christina Dodd with her paranormal romanticsuspense series Darkness Chosen. Frequency of publication in this area
really helps, as does lots of sexual tension
*romance readers are reading across genre more than ever--chick lit mysteries, romantic suspense, historical novels with strong female protagonists
*in the area of general contemporary women's fiction, consumers have more choice than ever before--there are so many strong novels that
thrive in the trade paperback format! NAL has had wonderful success with WHISTLING IN THE DARK by Lesley Kagen, which has 160,000 trade paperback copies in print. Her new novel, LAND OF A HUNDRED WONDERS, is coming in August, also in trade paperback.
*we're also doing well with historical novels featuring strong, often historical female protagonists, with and without romantic elements--and we'd love to acquire more
Deb Werksman, Sourcebooks Casablanca:
The romance market is robust! Readers are loyal to their favorite authors, but also always willing to try someone new if they like what they're hearing about the book.
Subgenres continue to cycle in and out of favor, but I believe there are readers for every subgenre, if the book is good enough. Paranormal continues to be hot, but it's getting crowded and is getting more difficult to break out in as a debut. Historical is steady and has been for a long time. Romantic suspense is hot, and for some is the second
strongest subgenre (after paranormal). Inspirational is also growing, and I've heard both that erotica is growing, and that it's not, so that
leads me to believe some retailers are doing well with it and others aren't.
I think the romance category is a lot like the stock market--it's reallyhard to time it. Best to go for "value"--a strong book with a strong hook may itself lead to an upswing in a "down" cycle.
I'm also hearing that trilogies are hot, and that series are getting shorter.
Dianne Moggy, director of Global Single Titles at Harlequin Books, says HQN is looking for contemporary romance, sexy historical romance and romantic suspense. Mira is also looking for romantic suspense manuscripts.
Tom Colgan of Berkley Prime Crime has no plans to cut back -- the imprint is doing well.
Betsy Mitchell, Editor in Chief of Del Rey Books, said they plan to increase their offerings of 'female-oriented' science fiction and fantasy.
Amy Pierpont, Editorial Director of Grand Central Publishing and Jennifer Enderlin, Senior Editor of St. Martin's Press are very interested in sexy western historical romance.
Devi Pillai, Orbit:
Regarding urban fantasy, some of the things I'm seeing that have popped up are supernatural creatures other than vamps and werewolves -- though let's not discount their importance in the scheme of things. Witches and succubus are coming up the ladder, but what's interesting is the rise of the half-breed in some of the more recent bestsellers. Keri Arthur has a half-vamp, half werewolf. Jeniene Frost has a half and half -- vampire and human I think? Plus of course the rise of the psychic, from Karen Chance to Charlaine Harris. It's interesting to note that we haven't lost our interest in the traditional elements of the supernatural beings, but it's neat to see the direction that its taking. . . Its kinda shifting from the supernatural to more human -- or the mixing of the genre is signifying a mixing of the supernatural races or something. Not quite clear to me yet, but as more books appear, perhaps we can make a ruling on what exactly the change is.
Mary-Theresa Hussey, MIRA
MIRA has begun to publish YA urban fantasy. (Rachel Vincent trilogy where the heroine is a banshee)
6. FUTURE CHALLENGES:
At the 2007 Frankfurt Book Fair last fall, they conducted a major survey of book industry professionals, asking respondents to identify the challenges and threats facing the publishing industry, and to predict emerging trends and areas of growth.
Publishers, retailers, agents and librarians from all over the world were surveyed via electronic newsletter. Over 1,300 responded from 86 countries. Nearly half of them were senior, CEO or Director level.
They were representative of the book trade as a whole, with professions ranging from editorial (20 per cent), marketing and PR (13 per cent), rights management (10 per cent), sales (9 per cent), booksellers (8 per cent), literary agents (5 per cent), librarians (4 per cent) and scouts (1 per cent).
Question one
What is the most important challenge currently facing the book industry?
• Digitization 53%
Question two
Which is the biggest threat to the publishing industry today?
• Competition from other media and sources of entertainment 50%
Question three
Which market is likely to commercially dominate in the coming decade?
• Europe 36%
• North America 32%
• China 29%
Question four
Who is currently driving the industry?
• Publishers 37%
• Marketers 31%
Question five
Which of the following will be obsolete in fifty years time?
• The publisher 4%
• The editor 6%
• The printed book 11%
• The electronic reader 10.5%
• The independent bookseller 23%
• None of the above 55.5%
Question six
Which of the following do you see as a major area of growth in coming years?
• Audiobooks 41%
• Books in translation 27%
• Educational publishing 27%
SOME FUN STATISTICS:
The bestselling mass market paperback was The Pocket Book of Baby and Child Care, by Dr. Benjamin Spock published in 1946.
Other mass market editions that sold at least 9 million copies through 1975 were:
* The Godfather (Crest)
* The Exorcist (Bantam)
* To Kill A Mockingbird (Popular Library)
* Peyton Place (Pocket Books)
* Love Story (New American Library)
* Jaws (Bantam)
* Valley of the Dolls (Bantam)
7. OUR OWN SURVEY:
I asked the attendees of the conference for their predictions on the sub-genres that were going to grow over the next 18 months and the ones that would shrink. Here's what they said.
Young adult romance AND historical romance tied for the sub-genres most likely to grow in the near term.
Erotica was the top pick for shrinkage in popularity over the next year and a half (with paranormal close on its heels.)
Check back at the end of 2009 to see if they were right!
THE ROMANCE MARKET IN THE U.S.
1. SOME PERSPECTIVE (2006 Figures)
According to the Business of Consumer Publishing Report 2007 from Simba Information, the net revenue for books from retail sources in the U.S. accounted for $6.31 billion in 2006. (This was a slight decline over 2005.)
Romance sales accounted for $1.37 billion or 21% of the overall sales.
Religious/inspirational sales accounted for $1.68 billion (which includes bibles; the number one selling book ever.)
* Science fiction/fantasy $495 million
* Classic literary fiction $448 million
* Mystery $422 million
* Graphic novels $128 million
The top five publishers of romance fiction (by sales)?
* Harlequin ($418 million)
* Random House ($81 million)
* Penguin Group ($71 million)
* HarperCollins ($64.8 million)
* Kensington ($37 million)
According to the report, the number of books PUBLISHED (rather than sold) are as follows:
* 40% category/series romance
* 17% historical
* 16% contemporary
* 9% paranormal
* 7% romantic suspense
* 6% inspirational
* 5% other (chick lit, young adult, erotic romance, women’s fict.)
WHO ARE THESE READERS?
According to an Associated Press–Ipsos poll, among those who said they read books in the past year:
* One in five read romance novels
* People from the South read slightly more; mostly religious books and romance novels
* More women than men read every major category
* Women read nine books per year, while men read five
According to RWA data: the romance reader has a "high frequency of purchases" with more than half of romance readers (54%) reading between one and five books in the past year; 17% reading between six and 10 books; and 14% reading between 11 and 20 books.
2. ROMANCE IS AS HEALTHY AS AN ALPHA MALE HERO (2007/08 Figures)
Romance novels constitute 40% of all popular fiction purchased in the U.S., with more than $1 billion in annual sales. Romance continues to represent more than 50% of the mass market paperbacks sold in the U.S. (with 1/3 of those sold at mass merchandisers like Target and Wal-Mart.)
Booksellers group, Shelf-Awareness, reported these statistics:
Net U.S. book sales for the month of February 2008 rose 4.8% to $491.2 million and for the year have risen 6.2% to $1.2 billion, as reported by 79 member publishers to the Association of American Publishers.
In an interesting contrast that may point to consumer's sensitivity to price in the current economy, in February, adult paperback was one of the strongest categories while adult hardcover was the weakest. Adult paperback climbed 30.8% to $128.8 million. Children's/YA hardcover rose 8.1% to $40.7 million. Children's/YA paperback rose 7.2% to $37.2 million.
Adult mass market rose 0.4% to $59.5 mill.
University press paperbacks fell 3.2% to $4.5 million.
University press hardcovers dropped 6.5% to $5.1 million.
Audiobooks fell 5.7% to $10.8 million.
Religious books fell 6.8% to $49.2 million.
Adult hardcovers fell 26.4% to $83.5 million.
According to Publishers Weekly, 5/13/2008:
For March 2008, bookstore sales rose 1.3% to $1.03 billion, according to estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. Sales have increased every month so far in 2008 and finished the first quarter up 5.1%, to $4.46 billion. The 1.3% March increase was the smallest gain in 2008. The sales increase in the bookstore segment was higher than for the entire retail segment, which rose 3.9% in the quarter. March retail sales inched up 0.5%, to $379 billion.
And according to Romance Writers of America: The popularity of romance audiobooks and e-books, publisher involvement in on-line communities and contests, and the expansion of subgenres spell a strong future for romance fiction.
3. ROMANCE SUB-GENRES GO UP AND DOWN IN POPULARITY
Popular Today:
Paranormal
Romantic Suspense
Historical (especially Regency)
Holding Steady:
Erotica
Contracting:
Chick Lit
Inspirational
4. E-Books and POD Romance
E-books were up 6.7% to $2.6 million in 2006 and although I couldn't find figures to support it, I bet they're up even more in 2007.
Romance titles have “done especially well” in the electronic book format. According to the New York Times, “The early best-seller lists were dominated by science fiction novels and other titles favored by men….But lately, the lists are led by romance and women’s fiction”. The International Digital Publishing Forum (IDF) reported sales of trade e-books for 2006 at around $24 million, which is double the amount of sales for 2005. “The adoption of OPS 2.0 along with the ‘.epub’ file format that goes with it…means that publishers can now create one digital book file instead of the 6 to 10 formats previously required", which is HUGE. With the new e-book file format, debut of the Sony Reader and Amazon Kindle, and new software from eBook Technologies, Mobipocket, eReader.com and others, sales should continue to rise.
It will be interesting to see what Amazon's recent announcement about POD books needing to be published by Amazon's subsidiary, BookSurge, in order to have a direct "BUY" button on Amazon.com. What will this do to POD romance titles?
5. FRESH OPINIONS (May 2008)
Some editors speak out on what's hot and what's not today in romance novels.
Cindy Hwang, Berkley: Today, paranormal romance is definitely divided into several subdivisions--there's dark fantasy/horror, where I would put all the vampires, werewolves, witches etc. used in a darker universe and tone. On the opposite end there's funny paranormal, which often can have a chick lit veneer to the voice and stories. There's also futuristic/sci fi romance, and pure fantasy romance. There still the occasional time travel or ghost romance, but the most popular creature now is the vampire. You definitely see darker, edgier, sexier paranormal romances now, but really there are books all along the paranormal spectrum. There are truly books for every taste.
Ginjer Buchanan, an editor at Berkley/Ace who has edited Laurell K. Hamilton and Charlaine Harris among others, discussed what constitutes Urban Fantasy. There's some paranormal romance that can be classified as Urban Fantasy, and Berkley's been working on ways to promote authors and books in both ponds since they know there's a large crossover readership. Urban Fantasy is a true cross-genre subgenre. Basically, Urban Fantasy can be defined as fiction that features preternatural creatures interacting with humans or other beings in a non-hidden manner. The world is contemporary and often a mirror of our own world, with the addition of preternatural creatures. The setting is usually urban, although not always. The tension often comes from the conflict of having the preternatural beings exist somewhat uneasily in a larger society made of non-magical beings. The protagonist is usually female, and there can be some kind of romantic element, but what propels the plot is not the romantic relationship--more likely, the plot is suspense-oriented.
Cindy goes on to say: Never fear, historical and contemporary romances are alive and well! Not everyone loves paranormal, of course, and in this age of diversity, I think it's more important than ever to give readers a choice. So publishers are still committed to buying and publishing historical romance and contemporary romance (romantic suspense, romantic comedy and contemporary romance). The problem comes when we can't find the quality we're looking for, because writers have decided that these subgenres won't sell and thus are no longer writing in these areas. It is true that for the most part, the historical and contemporary romance market isn't as strong right now as paranormal, but I think we (editors, publishers and readers) have been reading romance long enough to know that everything cycles around, and that as long as good books are being published in these subgenres, there will always be markets for them.
Shauna Summers, Bantam/Dell:
I think the general feeling is that publishing as a whole is starting to feel some of the impact of the recession. However, paranormal romance, historicals and romantic suspense all continue to do really well for us. Summers is also looking for 'big, contemporary romance' for Bantam Dell
Stacy Boyd, Harlequin:
Paranormal, especially the dark and/or sexy stuff (Gena Showalter), is doing well. We've also seen strong performances for erotica, inspirational romance, and some traditional/contemporary
romance (Debbie Macomber). Historicals, especially the sexy kind, are on the upswing with readers.
Ellen Edwards, NAL
*paranormals and urban fantasy are still going strong, although with so
many series to choose from, some are doing better than others. We
believe that readers will be looking for new world building, beyond
vampires, and we're excited to be introducing Jessica Andersen's
Nightkeepers series (NIGHTKEEPERS: A Novel of the Final Prophecy 6/08)
based on Mayan mythology.
*traditional Regency-set historicals by veteran writers are still going
strong--Jo Beverley is currently enjoying her longest run yet on the New
York Times list, and many others, with A LADY'S SECRET.
*romantic suspense is still a hot area where writers can build theiraudience; JoAnn Ross is doing very well for us with her High Risk series
(FREEFALL 2/08), as is Christina Dodd with her paranormal romanticsuspense series Darkness Chosen. Frequency of publication in this area
really helps, as does lots of sexual tension
*romance readers are reading across genre more than ever--chick lit mysteries, romantic suspense, historical novels with strong female protagonists
*in the area of general contemporary women's fiction, consumers have more choice than ever before--there are so many strong novels that
thrive in the trade paperback format! NAL has had wonderful success with WHISTLING IN THE DARK by Lesley Kagen, which has 160,000 trade paperback copies in print. Her new novel, LAND OF A HUNDRED WONDERS, is coming in August, also in trade paperback.
*we're also doing well with historical novels featuring strong, often historical female protagonists, with and without romantic elements--and we'd love to acquire more
Deb Werksman, Sourcebooks Casablanca:
The romance market is robust! Readers are loyal to their favorite authors, but also always willing to try someone new if they like what they're hearing about the book.
Subgenres continue to cycle in and out of favor, but I believe there are readers for every subgenre, if the book is good enough. Paranormal continues to be hot, but it's getting crowded and is getting more difficult to break out in as a debut. Historical is steady and has been for a long time. Romantic suspense is hot, and for some is the second
strongest subgenre (after paranormal). Inspirational is also growing, and I've heard both that erotica is growing, and that it's not, so that
leads me to believe some retailers are doing well with it and others aren't.
I think the romance category is a lot like the stock market--it's reallyhard to time it. Best to go for "value"--a strong book with a strong hook may itself lead to an upswing in a "down" cycle.
I'm also hearing that trilogies are hot, and that series are getting shorter.
Dianne Moggy, director of Global Single Titles at Harlequin Books, says HQN is looking for contemporary romance, sexy historical romance and romantic suspense. Mira is also looking for romantic suspense manuscripts.
Tom Colgan of Berkley Prime Crime has no plans to cut back -- the imprint is doing well.
Betsy Mitchell, Editor in Chief of Del Rey Books, said they plan to increase their offerings of 'female-oriented' science fiction and fantasy.
Amy Pierpont, Editorial Director of Grand Central Publishing and Jennifer Enderlin, Senior Editor of St. Martin's Press are very interested in sexy western historical romance.
Devi Pillai, Orbit:
Regarding urban fantasy, some of the things I'm seeing that have popped up are supernatural creatures other than vamps and werewolves -- though let's not discount their importance in the scheme of things. Witches and succubus are coming up the ladder, but what's interesting is the rise of the half-breed in some of the more recent bestsellers. Keri Arthur has a half-vamp, half werewolf. Jeniene Frost has a half and half -- vampire and human I think? Plus of course the rise of the psychic, from Karen Chance to Charlaine Harris. It's interesting to note that we haven't lost our interest in the traditional elements of the supernatural beings, but it's neat to see the direction that its taking. . . Its kinda shifting from the supernatural to more human -- or the mixing of the genre is signifying a mixing of the supernatural races or something. Not quite clear to me yet, but as more books appear, perhaps we can make a ruling on what exactly the change is.
Mary-Theresa Hussey, MIRA
MIRA has begun to publish YA urban fantasy. (Rachel Vincent trilogy where the heroine is a banshee)
6. FUTURE CHALLENGES:
At the 2007 Frankfurt Book Fair last fall, they conducted a major survey of book industry professionals, asking respondents to identify the challenges and threats facing the publishing industry, and to predict emerging trends and areas of growth.
Publishers, retailers, agents and librarians from all over the world were surveyed via electronic newsletter. Over 1,300 responded from 86 countries. Nearly half of them were senior, CEO or Director level.
They were representative of the book trade as a whole, with professions ranging from editorial (20 per cent), marketing and PR (13 per cent), rights management (10 per cent), sales (9 per cent), booksellers (8 per cent), literary agents (5 per cent), librarians (4 per cent) and scouts (1 per cent).
Question one
What is the most important challenge currently facing the book industry?
• Digitization 53%
Question two
Which is the biggest threat to the publishing industry today?
• Competition from other media and sources of entertainment 50%
Question three
Which market is likely to commercially dominate in the coming decade?
• Europe 36%
• North America 32%
• China 29%
Question four
Who is currently driving the industry?
• Publishers 37%
• Marketers 31%
Question five
Which of the following will be obsolete in fifty years time?
• The publisher 4%
• The editor 6%
• The printed book 11%
• The electronic reader 10.5%
• The independent bookseller 23%
• None of the above 55.5%
Question six
Which of the following do you see as a major area of growth in coming years?
• Audiobooks 41%
• Books in translation 27%
• Educational publishing 27%
SOME FUN STATISTICS:
The bestselling mass market paperback was The Pocket Book of Baby and Child Care, by Dr. Benjamin Spock published in 1946.
Other mass market editions that sold at least 9 million copies through 1975 were:
* The Godfather (Crest)
* The Exorcist (Bantam)
* To Kill A Mockingbird (Popular Library)
* Peyton Place (Pocket Books)
* Love Story (New American Library)
* Jaws (Bantam)
* Valley of the Dolls (Bantam)
7. OUR OWN SURVEY:
I asked the attendees of the conference for their predictions on the sub-genres that were going to grow over the next 18 months and the ones that would shrink. Here's what they said.
Young adult romance AND historical romance tied for the sub-genres most likely to grow in the near term.
Erotica was the top pick for shrinkage in popularity over the next year and a half (with paranormal close on its heels.)
Check back at the end of 2009 to see if they were right!

